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Monday, December 29, 2008

Fall Of Empire


"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration [of the US] will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

The article notes that Emmanuel Todd predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union back in 1976 (he was not alone throughout the Cold War, of course).  Oddly enough, he also predicted in 2001 that the US would decline:

[T]he French scientist Emmanuel Todd wrote "After the Empire: The Breakdown of the American Order", a book that was widely received as left wing US-bashing. Recently this book has been re-reviewed more positively and Todds description of the US housing bubble, industrial decline, trade deficit and "military theatricalism" might be more than just US-bashing...Todd claims that the US has peaked and that the future economic center will be Eurasia. With Europe and Asia connected by Russia, the central piece of geostrategic interests

While I never explicitly predict any such thing based on specific data, this does bring to mind something I wrote in 2003 in the context of Iraq:

I return to John Quincy Adams, who described America’s role in global affairs to the House of Representatives on July 4, 1821:

She well knows that by once enlisting under other banners than her own, were they even the banners of foreign independence, she would involve herself beyond the power of extrication, in all the wars of interest and intrigue, of individual avarice, envy, and ambition, which assume the colors and usurp the standard of freedom.

Indeed, the United States claims it has gone to war under the banner of Iraqi independence, and is now unable to extricate itself from the mess it created. In projecting our power we have damaged the standard of freedom and the ideals upon which this country was founded. Rather than acting as a positive force of change in the world, we have lashed out at enemy and ally alike, weakening ourselves in the process. In future history books, the war in Iraq will likely not be recognized as the cause of America’s decline; rather, it will be seen as a signal that our power was already waning, just as power has waned for all the empires that have preceded us.

Imperial overreach is a bitch.


December 29, 2008 | Permalink


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