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Saturday, October 15, 2005
Disengagement
Our friend Alex W, one of the guests in our last episode of FCB1 asked me about my thoughts on withdrawing from Iraq. Last week a student queried me on what he termed 'disarmament'2, and we chatted about his concerns about the war in the context of his young children and the potential of a draft--another student, whose son is serving over there as an intel officer, joined in. It's always a dicey thing talking about this stuff, especially with a customer, but in contrast to the trollish crap we see in the blogosphere, I take such questioning as honest engagement and I respond accordingly3.
I'm glad we're having this discussion as a nation, even if it is way later than it should've been. And it's great to see reasonable folks within the military domain are also doing so openly and frankly. While I don't agree with every specific item in this recent report from the Army War College's Strategic Studies Institute, it provides a great deal of insight and things for all of us to think about when considering withdrawal:
1. U.S. Government leaders must never forget that the United States will achieve its key objectives once the Iraqi government is viewed by the majority of its people, regardless of sect or ethnicity, as a legitimate government that is worth fighting and dying for; and the Iraqi security forces have the training, know-how, and equipment to put these convictions into practice...
2. The United States must develop detailed plans for implementing a withdrawal of significant numbers of troops under a variety of much less than optimal conditions...
3. U.S. military and intelligence leaders must be painfully honest in addressing the question of when Iraqi security forces will be able to function without a coalition troop presence to prop them up...
4. Senior U.S. military leaders must resist the view that they are “grading themselves” when they are asked to train the security forces and to evaluate Iraqi readiness to assume more expanded duties for military and security operations...
5. The United States MUST NOT establish a timetable to withdraw from Iraq so long as U.S. leaders consider the situation in Iraq to be redeemable...
6. As a last resort for preventing near-term civil war, the United States may have to swallow the bitter pill of allowing local militias to retain a significant and ongoing role in Iraqi politics if the Iraqi government is interested in pursuing this option and if the Iraqi security forces cannot take full responsibility for the nation’s safety...
7. The United States needs to renounce interest in permanent bases in Iraq on a strong and continuing basis...
8. The United States needs to deemphasize rhetoric that may cause Iraqi citizens to believe their government has been put in place to wage war on U.S. enemies in the Muslim World and otherwise serve U.S. interests...
9. U.S. leadership must recognize that it may still continue to support democracy after U.S. forces are withdrawn from Iraq, providing that the nation is stable when it leaves...
10. U.S. leaders should continually note the courage, commitment, and sacrifice of our troops in the field, while realizing that these same qualities are reasons to safeguard their lives even more carefully...
I'd like to particularly emphasize points 2, 5, 7, 9 and 10, with which you might be surprised to find I wholeheartedly agree. I also want to highlight these words expanding on the final item:
All future wars should have carefully planned exit strategies based on something other than best case planning for the future of the countries involved. In undertaking such plans, the United States must take care to maintain realistic expectations of what it can actually achieve with military intervention, especially with regard to the imposition of market economies and democracy on states that we do not fully understand.
Alas, Bush had only short-term objectives in mind and no sense of history or long-term implications. In today's radio address he also shows how tone deaf he continues to be:
Iraqis will decide the future of their country through peaceful elections, not violent insurgency.
If only he'd had more faith in the Iraqi people before he launched his violent war, which gave birth to the violent insurgency. Yes, Iraqis themselves were capable of throwing off the yoke of tyranny, and without our invasion if we'd only recognize that we do not hold a monopoly on Brand Liberty, which we dole out at our discretion.
One of the small lessons Bush might have drawn from Cindy Sheehan's vigil, had he been open-minded and intellectually curious, is that she follows in the footsteps of Las Madres and the Rosenstrasse wives--women who fought brutal dictatorships and won. Regular people have the power to confront any regime, democratic or not. For us to truly support liberty we must not try to impose our will on people if we want them to ultimately attain lasting freedom.
And now I must remind you once again of Boyd's concepts of moral conflict and provide some counterbalance with McReynolds' Philosophy of Nonviolence. Two sides of the same coin in my mind.
ntodd
1 - Bill's been busy with VIFF and other things, but will most assuredly get #21 and #22 edited and posted as soon as he can. And yes, I'll be recording an NToddcast sometime soon. No, really.
2 - The following icon is on my dusty, old website:

I'm guessing he didn't realize that's the War Resisters League logo, and doesn't necessarily mean I'm an advocate of disarmament per se, but whatever.
3 - In other words, I try to be kinda serious and thoughtful, rather than, you know, calling people fuckers. Out of character, yes...
October 15, 2005 | Permalink
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Comments
5. The United States MUST NOT establish a timetable to withdraw from Iraq so long as U.S. leaders consider the situation in Iraq to be redeemable...
This point is questionable although I'm not 100 percent sure its wrong.
The "danger" that insurgents will lay low until after we leave is actually a benefit. If they go that route the government will be able to establish social and economic order. Restarting the insurgency at that point would be difficult.
Posted by: Boelf | Oct 15, 2005 8:32:57 PM
Well, I'm not entirely convinced that the insurgents would lay back if a timetable were announced--it's a rather specious argument at best.
The reason I don't want to see a timetable is that it will necessarily be artificial, just as the "handover of sovereignty" and the January elections and today's referendum. Rather than some arbitrary deadlines that we push no matter what the reality is on the ground, we need to base our withdrawal on that very reality. Set some specific goals/milestones that are realistically achievable, even if they leave things in a less-than-optimal state, and when they are accomplished get the hell out of Dodge.
Perhaps that's too nuanced for the current crew in charge, but I think the distinction is important.
Posted by: NTodd | Oct 15, 2005 8:55:33 PM
NTodd,
Withdrawal will only be possible if the US gets off its high horse and seeks the assistance of the countries in the Middle East with a stake in a stable Iraq. The two most obvious are Syria and Iran.
Jordan may turn out to be the honest broker needed to facilitate such arrangements, but until the cowboys in the White House, Pentagon, and State Department are willing to drop the "go it alone" stance, any withdrawal will be disasterous.
Posted by: Diane | Oct 15, 2005 9:55:21 PM
I assume you agree with points 3 and 8
also?
Posted by: Karin | Oct 15, 2005 10:19:38 PM
Diane - given Karen Hughes' recent "listening tour", it's clear the US won't be getting off the horse any time soon.
Karin - indeed I do. I just wanted to highlight a few points that people might assume I don't agree with, and #7 which is a key, underreported aspect of our long-term involvement.
Posted by: NTodd | Oct 16, 2005 8:21:10 AM
Thanks for the link that was a fascinating read.
Posted by: Hubris Sonic | Oct 16, 2005 9:47:06 AM
We lost when we weren't welcomed as liberators
Our presence inflames the situation & discredits any government we support
The question is not when we leave, but how many people are going to be killed before we finally do it
Posted by: Prior Aelred | Oct 16, 2005 10:22:50 AM



